July 2026 market report
July 2026 | Market Report
Greater Toronto Area (GTA) resale housing market conditions tightened in July 2026 compared the same month a year earlier. Home sales edged slightly lower over that period, while new listings were down substantially. This suggests that active homebuyers faced more competition from other potential purchasers. If this trend continues, average selling prices could level off in the second half of this year.
July 2026 | Market Report
The GTA housing market continued to tighten through the summer of 2026 — sales held firm, new listings fell sharply, and prices showed the first signs of levelling off after nearly two years of annual declines. Here is what the data says.
The Greater Toronto Area Real Estate Market Report: July 2026
July 2026 delivered a market in quiet, deliberate transition. Sales edged marginally lower year-over-year — a decline of less than one percent — while new listings fell by a substantial 17.8%, the sharpest supply contraction recorded in this cycle. Active inventory contracted 12.1%. And on a seasonally adjusted basis, sales rose month-over-month compared to June while new listings fell further, meaning market conditions continued to tighten even through what is historically the year's quietest stretch.
The headline average price of $1,003,956 — down 4.5% year-over-year — understates the more important story: the rate of annual price decline has compressed from double digits at the cycle's trough to the low single digits, and the MLS® HPI Composite edged higher month-over-month on a seasonally adjusted basis. The correction is not over, but its momentum has clearly faded.
Drawing on the latest TRREB Market Watch report, this analysis examines July's performance in full — sales dynamics, pricing trends, regional data, macroeconomic context, and what the balance of 2026 may hold.
At a Glance — July 2026
Sales: 5,995 homes sold across the Greater Toronto Area, down 0.9% year-over-year
New Listings: 14,484 — down 17.8% year-over-year
Active Listings: 26,098 — down 12.1% year-over-year
Average Selling Price: $1,003,956 — down 4.5% year-over-year
MLS® HPI Composite Benchmark: $934,600 — down 4.63% year-over-year
Average Days on Market (LDOM): 32 days (vs. 30 in July 2025)
Market Conditions: Supply Withdrawal Accelerates
The Most Important Number This Month Is Not the Sales Figure
A 0.9% year-over-year sales decline is, in isolation, a modest and unremarkable result. What makes July's data significant is the context around it: new listings plunged 17.8% year-over-year to just 14,484, and active listings contracted 12.1% to 26,098. On a seasonally adjusted basis, sales rose month-over-month while new listings fell — a dynamic that TRREB identified as evidence of continued market tightening through the summer months.
The practical implication is that active homebuyers faced more competition from other purchasers in July than they did in June. The balance of power in this market is shifting — not dramatically, not in a way that has yet translated into price increases, but measurably and consistently in the direction of sellers.
SNLR Trend: Tightening Across All Major Regions
The Sales-to-New-Listings Ratio trend for the overall GTA reached 37.1% in July, with notable tightening in several key sub-markets. York Region (41.4%), Halton Region (39.5%), and Toronto Central (38.1%) all registered readings well above the GTA average, reflecting the sustained demand for well-located product in communities where supply scarcity is structural, not cyclical. Durham maintained its position as the GTA's tightest regional market with a months of inventory reading of just 3.4 — the lowest of any major region.
Pricing Trends: Deceleration Is the Story
Annual Declines Compress Further
The average selling price of $1,003,956 was 4.5% below July 2025 — the narrowest annual decline recorded in this correction cycle
The MLS® HPI Composite benchmark fell 4.63% year-over-year to $934,600 — also the shallowest annual decline in many months
On a seasonally adjusted month-over-month basis, the HPI Composite edged higher compared to June 2026, while the average selling price was marginally lower — a near-flat outcome consistent with a market approaching equilibrium
The trajectory of annual price changes tells the cycle's story most clearly. From year-over-year declines of 10–14% at the trough in late 2024 and early 2025, the GTA composite benchmark has compressed steadily to -7% in March, -6.55% in April, and now -4.63% in July. At this rate of deceleration, the return to flat year-over-year pricing is a matter of months, not years — assuming supply discipline holds and demand continues its gradual recovery.
Segment-Level Pricing — July 2026
Home Type Average Price YoY Change Detached $1,291,690 -5.1% Semi-Detached $964,922 -5.9% Townhouse (Att./Row) $817,213 -3.9% Condo Apartment $636,323 -2.3%
The condo apartment segment recorded its shallowest annual price decline of 2026 in July — down just 2.3% year-over-year — a meaningful departure from the 6–9% annual declines recorded earlier in the year. This is consistent with rising investor and end-user demand at improved affordability levels, and with the broader supply contraction that has reduced active condo listings materially from their peak. The townhouse segment's 3.9% annual decline also reflects relative resilience, underscoring the persistent demand for family-appropriate ground-level product across the GTA.
MLS® HPI Benchmark Highlights
The City of Toronto's composite benchmark of $940,200 was down 3.83% year-over-year — one of the more resilient readings across the GTA. York Region's composite benchmark stood at $698,600, down 4.07%. Durham Region's composite benchmark of $934,600 declined 4.63% — broadly in line with the GTA average. Notable outliers on the downside included East Gwillimbury (-7.47% composite) and Georgina (-7.61%), reflecting the continued mean reversion in communities that saw disproportionate pandemic-era appreciation.
Buyer Sentiment: Waiting, But the Reasons Are Shifting
TRREB President Daniel Steinfeld's commentary in July was careful and precise. With sales accounting for a larger share of listings, he noted, buyers may find there is less room to negotiate moving forward. The shift is subtle but consequential: six months ago, the question was whether buyers would return; today, the question is how quickly they will. Many would-be homebuyers, he observed, are still waiting for greater confidence in the market and the broader economy — specifically more clarity on tariffs, inflation, and borrowing costs.
TRREB Chief Information Officer Jason Mercer offered a more constructive read on the macro backdrop. Recent economic news has been more positive than expected, he noted — upside surprises on both growth and employment — and this could help bolster consumer confidence and prompt an uptick in home purchases through the fall, especially if prices stabilise. The word "stabilise" is significant. It is the condition that unlocks deferred demand, and July's data suggests it is being met.
Regional Performance: July 2026 Sales by Area
City of Toronto
Toronto's 2,242 transactions in July were anchored by the condo apartment segment (1,054 units), which continues to represent the market's highest-volume category by unit count. Detached sales (691 across the 416) averaged $1,547,928 — a figure that reflects the sustained scarcity of well-located freehold product within the city. Toronto Central's SNLR trend of 38.1% and months of inventory of 4.6 confirm a market that is tightening steadily through the summer.
York Region
York Region recorded 1,063 sales at an average price of $1,146,307 — the second-highest regional average in the GTA. Its SNLR trend of 41.4% and months of inventory of 3.6 are the most compelling supply-demand metrics of any major GTA region, reflecting the persistent undersupply of family-oriented product in communities like Markham, Richmond Hill, and Vaughan. At 5,179 active listings — down meaningfully from the 5,958 peak recorded in June 2025 — York Region's inventory position is continuing to normalise.
Halton Region
Halton's 682 transactions averaged $1,151,595, with Oakville (248 sales, average $1,412,619) and Burlington (221 sales, average $1,050,887) anchoring performance. Halton's SNLR trend of 39.5% and months of inventory of 4.2 place it among the GTA's tighter sub-markets. The Oakville detached benchmark — at $1,611,500 — continues to reflect the structural scarcity of well-located freehold product in one of the GTA's most coveted communities.
Peel Region
Peel recorded 1,053 sales at an average of $910,007, with Mississauga (500 sales, average $899,002) and Brampton (498 sales, average $885,702) accounting for the bulk of activity. Peel's months of inventory reading of 5.0 reflects a market that remains broadly balanced, though its SNLR trend of 34.0% has been edging higher consistently through 2026.
Durham Region
Durham's 725 transactions at an average of $834,312 maintained the region's position as the GTA's most accessible major market for family-oriented buyers. With months of inventory at just 3.4 — the tightest reading of any major GTA region — Durham is operating in conditions closest to a sellers' market. Ajax (111 sales, average $907,336) and Whitby (177 sales, average $1,152,885) continued to lead activity.
Macroeconomic Context: Tentatively Better
The July economic backdrop offered the most constructive mix of indicators seen in several months:
Bank of Canada Overnight Rate: 2.3% (unchanged — continued policy stability)
Prime Rate: 4.5%
Toronto Unemployment Rate: 7.2% (June 2026 — declining from the 8.1% peak in March/April)
Toronto Employment Growth: +0.9% year-over-year (June 2026 — turning positive for the first time in several months)
Inflation (CPI, Yr./Yr.): 2.8% (June 2026 — edging up slightly but remaining in manageable territory)
Real GDP Growth: -0.1% (Q1 2026, annualized — still negative but meaningfully improved from Q4 2025's -0.6%)
1-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate: 5.49% | 3-Year: 6.05% | 5-Year: 6.09%
The turn in employment growth from negative to positive — and the decline in Toronto's unemployment rate from 8.1% to 7.2% — are the most meaningful data points in July's economic picture. Labour market strength is the single most important precondition for housing demand, and the direction of travel here has definitively improved. Combined with stable interest rates and inflation returning toward target, the macro conditions for a more sustained housing recovery are incrementally better in July than they were in any previous month of 2026.
GDP remains in mild contraction on an annualized basis, but the improvement from -0.6% to -0.1% in one quarter is a meaningful signal. If Q2 2026 data — due in the coming months — confirms a return to positive growth, the psychological barrier for deferred buyers may fall considerably.
Supply Pipeline & Policy: The Municipal Roadblock
TRREB CEO John DiMichele used the July release to make the case for municipal housing reform with unusual urgency, noting that it will be a key issue in the upcoming municipal election. Restrictive zoning, outdated local rules, high taxes and fees, and approval delays are making housing more expensive across the GTA and Simcoe County — adding tens of thousands of dollars to the cost of every home built.
The framing matters: this is no longer solely a provincial policy conversation. Municipal governments are now squarely in focus, and the upcoming election cycle creates both an opportunity and a risk. An opportunity because housing affordability has rarely been a more salient political issue; a risk because municipal reform is slower, more fragmented, and more subject to local opposition than provincial legislation.
For the medium-term supply picture, the structural undersupply thesis remains firmly intact. The question is not whether supply is insufficient — it clearly is — but how quickly the policy, financing, and construction ecosystem can be reformed to accelerate delivery of the right types of homes at the right price points.
Year-to-Date 2026: Sequential Improvement Continues
Through the first seven months of 2026, 37,105 homes have transacted across the GTA at an average price of $1,032,207. The monthly trajectory shows a market that peaked in the spring and has settled into a healthy summer run rate:
Month Sales Average Price January 2026 3,046 $968,522 February 2026 3,838 $1,007,726 March 2026 4,994 $1,015,034 April 2026 5,922 $1,051,750 May 2026 6,555 $1,069,861 June 2026 6,755 $1,058,928 July 2026 5,995 $1,003,956
The YTD average price of $1,032,207 represents a meaningful recovery from the sub-$970,000 levels recorded in January. July's month-over-month price dip reflects normal seasonal softness rather than any renewed downward trend — summer months consistently see lower average prices as the composition of sales shifts toward lower-priced segments.
Outlook: The Second Half Comes Into Focus
Supply discipline is the market's defining variable. A 17.8% year-over-year decline in new listings is not a rounding error — it is a structural shift in seller behaviour. Owners who purchased at or near peak prices in 2021–2022 remain reluctant to crystallise losses by selling below their acquisition cost. Until prices recover sufficiently to restore their equity position, many will stay put. This dynamic is self-reinforcing: lower supply supports prices, which encourages more sellers to remain on the sidelines, which further constrains supply.
The employment turn is the cycle's most important development. Positive employment growth and a declining unemployment rate in June are the first clear signal that the Toronto labour market is stabilising. If this trend holds through Q3, it will convert a significant cohort of qualified but cautious buyers into active purchasers. This is where the pent-up demand thesis — consistently cited by TRREB — begins to materialise in transaction data rather than just sentiment surveys.
Price recovery is approaching, but patience is required. Annual benchmark declines of 4.63% in July — compared to 10–14% at the trough — confirm that the price correction cycle is in its final phase. A return to flat year-over-year pricing is plausible by Q4 2026 or early 2027 if current trends hold. Outright price appreciation is a 2027 story for most segments, with the possible exception of detached product in supply-constrained York Region and Halton communities.
The condo apartment segment's recovery is the most encouraging development of the month. A 2.3% annual price decline — versus 6–9% earlier in the year — suggests the segment has found a more durable floor. Investors and first-time buyers willing to act ahead of the broader market recovery are operating in the most favourable conditions seen since the pre-pandemic era. Carrying costs remain elevated, but cap rates in select segments are beginning to approach investment viability for long-horizon owners.
Fall 2026 will be the decisive test. September and October typically see a meaningful acceleration in GTA resale activity as summer's seasonal softness reverses. With inventory lower, employment improving, rates stable, and a cohort of buyers who have now been deferring for 18–24 months, the conditions for a constructive fall market are in place. Whether confidence in the broader economy — particularly on the trade and tariff front — provides the catalyst remains the key uncertainty.
Closing Assessment
July 2026 did not produce a dramatic headline. What it produced was something more durable: the continuation of a tightening trend that has now persisted for five consecutive months.
Sales held firm. Listings fell sharply. Prices declined at their slowest annual rate in this cycle. Employment turned positive. And on a seasonally adjusted basis, the market got tighter in July than it was in June.
For buyers, the calculus is clear: the window of ample choice and meaningful negotiating power is narrower today than it was in January. For sellers, the patient approach — holding through the correction rather than selling into it — is being vindicated. For investors and long-term owners, the structural story of a supply-constrained, demographically driven, internationally recognised housing market has not changed. Only the entry point has improved.
The second half of 2026 begins with the GTA housing market in the best fundamental position it has occupied in nearly two years. Whether it capitalises on that position will depend on forces — trade clarity, consumer confidence, the municipal election — that are only partially within the market's control.
The data says the foundation is sound. The next chapter is being written now.
Data sourced from the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) MLS® Market Watch, July 2026. All statistics are based on firm transactions entered into the TRREB MLS® System. Average prices are intended for trend analysis only and do not reflect the value of any specific property. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
The Residences Group at Sotheby's International Realty Canada | residencestoronto.com
