June 2026 | Market Report
The Greater Toronto Area Real Estate Market Report: June 2026
Sales accelerated sharply year-over-year, new listings continued to contract, and the GTA's second quarter delivered exactly what TRREB forecast: a market of two halves, and the second half has begun.
The Greater Toronto Area Real Estate Market Report: June 2026
The GTA resale housing market entered the second half of 2026 with unmistakable forward momentum. June sales reached 6,770 — a 9.4% year-over-year increase and the strongest monthly gain of the year to date, while new listings fell a further 12.9% to 17,282, extending the supply contraction that has been building since January. For the first half of 2026 in aggregate, sales edged above the first six months of 2025, while new listings fell substantially over the same period, a structural imbalance that is quietly, but measurably, shifting pricing power back toward sellers. The average selling price of $1,058,658 declined 3.9% year-over-year, a narrowing gap that reflects both the continued correction in condo benchmarks and the stabilising price dynamic across ground-oriented segments. On a seasonally adjusted basis, both the average selling price and the MLS® HPI Composite edged higher month-over-month, the second consecutive monthly gain on this measure.
Drawing on June 2026 TRREB MLS® Market Watch data, this report examines sales velocity, regional performance, segment-level pricing, macroeconomic context, and what the close of Q2 2026 implies for the remainder of the year.
At a Glance: June 2026
Sales: 6,770: +9.4 YoY
New Listings: 17,282: -12.9% YoY
Active Listings: 27,239: -13.5% YoY
Average Selling Price: $1,058,658: -3.9% YoY
MLS HPI Composite Benchmark: $940,800: -5.4% YoY
Average Days on Market (LDOM): 29 Days
Market Conditions: The Second Half has Arrived
The 9.4% year-over-year sales gain in June is the headline, but the more instructive signal sits in the supply data. Sellers listed 17,282 homes in June versus 19,847 in June 2025 — a reduction of more than 2,500 units in a single month. Active listings fell to 27,329 from 31,585 a year earlier, down 13.5%. The pattern is now consistent across six consecutive months: demand rising, supply contracting, inventory compressing. On a seasonally adjusted basis, June home sales were up month-over-month compared to May, while new listings were down — the same directional signal that appeared in May, now confirmed by June.
The Sales-to-New-Listings Ratio trend across all TRREB areas reached 36.5% in June — edging toward the upper boundary of buyer's market conditions and approaching balanced territory. Durham Region's SNLR trend of 41.0% and months of inventory of 3.4 position it firmly in balanced market conditions. Halton Region at 39.1% SNLR and 4.3 months of inventory is the next tightest. The City of Toronto, at 37.4% and 4.7 months, is moving steadily upward from where it stood at the beginning of the year. Even York Region, which carried the heaviest inventory overhang through 2024 and 2025, is showing signs of absorption — active listings declined to 5,302 in June from 5,958 a year prior, a 10.9% year-over-year reduction.
TRREB President Daniel Steinfeld characterised Q2 2026 as a marked improvement following a slow start to the year, noting that the second quarter result followed TRREB's 2026 forecast of a year of two halves. The forecast is tracking as written: the first half established the demand base, and the second half is expected to deliver accelerating transactions and more competition between buyers. The pent-up demand that accumulated through 2024 and 2025 has not evaporated — it has been waiting for the affordability and confidence conditions that are now assembling.
Pricing Trends: Declining Year-Over-Year, Rising Month-Over-Month
The average selling price of $1,058,658 sits 3.9% below June 2025's $1,101,854 — a year-over-year gap that has now compressed from the 4.6% reading in May and the deeper corrections visible in H1 2025. The MLS® HPI Composite benchmark of $940,800 reflects a 5.4% year-over-year decline, also a sequential improvement from May's -6.7%. On both the average price and HPI measures, the rate of annual decline is receding — the most important forward-looking signal in the June data.
The ground-oriented segments are showing the most resilience. The detached composite benchmark across all TRREB areas sits at $1,230,500, down 5.3% year-over-year but with select sub-markets showing outright appreciation — the City of Toronto's composite benchmark is actually positive year-over-year at +0.95%, an inflection point that warrants attention. The condo apartment segment continues to bear the most pricing pressure, with the GTA apartment benchmark at $537,300, down 8.2% year-over-year.
Segment-Level Pricing — June 2026
TRREB MLS® System
Segment-Level Pricing — June 2026
GTA average selling price and year-over-year change by home type
| Home Type | Average Price | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|
| Detached | $1,364,204 | -2.0% |
| Semi-Detached | $1,038,973 | -4.6% |
| Townhouse (Att./Row) | $844,579 | -3.1% |
| Condo Apartment | $630,688 | -9.5% |
Total GTA averages across 416 and 905 combined. Source: TRREB MLS® Market Watch, June 2026.
Note: Total GTA averages across 416 and 905 combined.
The detached segment's year-over-year decline has compressed to just -2.0%, a meaningful shift from the -4.7% reading in May. Semi-detached is down 4.6%. Townhouses at -3.1% continue to hold better than condos. The condo apartment market at -9.5% year-over-year remains the most structurally challenged segment, reflecting both the persistent inventory overhang of investor-held units and more cautious buyer sentiment around the format.
Buyer Sentiment: The Confidence Threshold Is Approaching
TRREB President Daniel Steinfeld noted that the second quarter delivered a marked improvement in home sales, consistent with the forecast for a year of two halves, and projected accelerating transactions and more competition between buyers across the second half of 2026. The language is directionally clear: TRREB's base case anticipates a tightening market that will, in time, satisfy pent-up demand and result in renewed price growth.
TRREB Chief Information Officer Jason Mercer offered the most precise signal for buyers assessing whether to act now or wait. While the average selling price is still down year-over-year in June, the annual rate of decline has receded over recent months. If market conditions continue to tighten through H2 2026, selling prices could move in line with 2025 levels and eventually post increases — giving an increasing number of households the confidence to re-enter the market. That sentence contains the critical forward-looking dynamic: as prices stabilise and then rise, more prospective sellers will list, more prospective buyers will act, and the cycle of normalisation accelerates. The buyers who act before that confidence cascade takes hold will have done so at the most advantageous terms available in this cycle.
Regional Performance: June 2026 Sales by Area
City of Toronto reported 2,443 sales in June at an average price of $1,081,375 — with the SNLR trend at 37.4% and months of inventory at 4.7. Toronto Central remained the volume engine with 1,224 sales at an average of $1,157,077, driven heavily by the condo apartment segment. Toronto East delivered 592 sales at $984,627, while Toronto West recorded 627 sales at $1,024,941. The SP/LP ratio for the city reached 99–100% across most districts, with select Toronto Central neighbourhoods — including C01 and C09 — registering SP/LP ratios above 100%, a signal that competitive multiple-offer conditions are returning to specific corridors.
TRREB MLS® System
City of Toronto — Monthly Home Sales
Year-over-year comparison, January through May 2026
York Region recorded 592 sales at an average price of $1,239,892 — the highest regional average price in the GTA. The SNLR trend sits at 35.0% with months of inventory at 5.4, still buyer-favourable in aggregate, but the trajectory is improving. Richmond Hill (230 sales, $1,185,018 average) and Markham (360 sales, $1,136,454 average) led regional volume. Vaughan posted 333 sales at $1,241,949. Active listings in York fell to 5,302 — a 10.9% year-over-year decline — as the inventory overhang that defined the region through 2025 continues to absorb.
Peel Region saw 1,167 sales at an average price of $966,024. Mississauga reported 567 sales at $1,014,120, while Brampton generated 518 sales at $888,203. Caledon, with 82 sales at $1,125,065, continues to serve the demand corridor for premium detached product in the western 905. Peel's SNLR trend of 33.3% and months of inventory of 5.1 position it in buyer's market territory, but the direction of travel is toward balance.
Halton Region delivered 785 sales at an average price of $1,222,898 — the second-highest regional average in the GTA. Oakville led with 297 sales at $1,454,094, reflecting the continued demand for luxury freehold and prestige condominium product. Burlington contributed 279 sales at $1,149,952, and Milton added 147 sales at $998,770. Halton's SNLR trend of 39.1% and months of inventory of 4.3 make it the region closest to balanced market conditions — consistent with the pattern visible since early 2026.
Durham Region posted 849 sales at an average price of $856,170, maintaining its position as the GTA's most affordably priced major region and the one with the tightest supply-demand balance. Ajax (96 sales, $868,651 average), Oshawa (181 sales, $726,544 average), and Whitby (168 sales, $990,492 average) were the primary contributors. Durham's SNLR trend of 41.0% and months of inventory of 3.4 make it the tightest market in the GTA on both measures — a function of sustained first-time and move-up buyer demand for freehold product under $1 million.
TRREB MLS® System
York Region — Active Listings
Year-over-year inventory comparison, January through May 2026
TRREB MLS® System
York Region — Monthly Home Sales
Year-over-year comparison, January through May 2026
Macroeconomic Context: The Backdrop Continues to Firm
The macroeconomic environment in June 2026 is providing meaningful support to housing demand across all its critical dimensions:
- Bank of Canada Overnight Rate: 2.3% (June 2026) — unchanged, but significantly below the peak cycle rate
- Prime Rate: 4.5% (June 2026)
- Mortgage Rates (Fixed, June 2026): 1-year 5.49% · 3-year 6.05% · 5-year 6.09%
- Toronto Employment Growth: +0.7% YoY (May 2026) — turned positive
- Toronto Unemployment Rate (SA): 7.6% (May 2026) — improving from 8.1% in March
- Inflation (CPI Yr./Yr.): 3.2% (May 2026)
- Real GDP Growth: -0.1% (Q1 2026, annualized) — still negative but the contraction is narrowing
Two of the most meaningful indicators improved between the May and June reports: Toronto employment growth turned positive at +0.7% year-over-year, and the unemployment rate declined from 8.1% to 7.6%. Both shifts reduce the affordability headwind from the labour market side and increase the pool of buyers who can qualify and commit. The overnight rate holding at 2.3% while inflation edges toward 3.2% suggests the Bank of Canada is comfortable holding rather than cutting further in the near term — but the current rate level remains materially accommodative relative to the 2022–2023 peak, and fixed mortgage rates are unchanged from the prior month.
Supply Pipeline & Policy Landscape
TRREB CEO John DiMichele used the June release to draw attention to development charges — a structural cost driver that has materially increased the upfront expense of housing delivery and that flows directly into both purchase prices and rental costs. Development charges can represent up to 20% of a home's purchase price, according to TRREB's own analysis. The Canada-Ontario DC Reduction Program presents a meaningful opportunity for municipalities to reduce these charges while accessing provincial funding to offset the related fiscal impacts — a policy lever that, if deployed effectively, could reduce housing delivery costs and expand supply at the entry-level price point where demand is most constrained.
The policy framing is relevant to the medium-term supply outlook. In the near term, inventory is contracting. But whether the H2 2026 demand recovery produces an orderly price correction or a sharper one will depend significantly on how quickly new supply — particularly ground-oriented and mid-rise — can enter the pipeline. Bill 98 and the DC Reduction Program are the two most immediate levers. Both are directionally positive for supply; neither will be felt in the resale market within the next 12 months.
Year-to-Date 2026: The Second Quarter Confirmed the Thesis
TRREB MLS® System
Year-to-Date 2026: Sequential Momentum Building
Monthly GTA home sales and average selling price, January–June 2026
| Month | Sales | Average Price |
|---|---|---|
| January 2026 | 3,047 | $968,527 |
| February 2026 | 3,838 | $1,015,088 |
| March 2026 | 4,995 | $1,051,487 |
| April 2026 | 5,925 | $1,069,944 |
| May 2026* | 6,574 | $1,058,658 |
| June 2026 | 6,770 | $1,058,658 |
| YTD Total | 31,149 | $1,037,597 |
*May figures revised per TRREB's standard monthly revision process. Source: TRREB MLS® Market Watch, June 2026. YTD average price is the overall average across all transactions January–June 2026.
Note: May figures revised slightly per TRREB's standard monthly revision process.
The sequential sales progression — from 3,047 in January to 6,770 in June — describes a market that doubled its transaction velocity in six months. Average prices peaked in April at $1,069,944, softened slightly in May and June as the seasonal mix shifted toward higher condo apartment volume, and now sit at a YTD average of $1,037,597. The YTD total of 31,149 sales against a year-to-date average price of $1,037,597 reflects a market that is meaningfully more active than H1 2025, at prices that remain below the prior year on a year-over-year basis — the precise conditions TRREB characterised as a year of two halves.
Outlook: What H2 2026 Holds
The demand acceleration is real and structurally supported. The 9.4% year-over-year sales gain in June is not a one-month anomaly — it follows a 6.3% gain in May and a 7.3% gain in April. The trend is accelerating, not plateauing. With employment improving, borrowing costs stable, and pent-up demand still in the pipeline, the base case for H2 2026 is continued sales growth relative to H2 2025, which was a subdued half by historical standards.
Price declines are compressing toward zero. The year-over-year average price decline narrowed from -4.6% in May to -3.9% in June. The HPI Composite narrowed from -6.7% to -5.4%. Month-over-month seasonally adjusted prices rose for the second consecutive month. The arithmetic of base effects will also work in favour of year-over-year comparisons in Q3 and Q4: pricing in H2 2025 was weak, so the bar for showing positive year-over-year comparisons in H2 2026 is lower than it was in H1. The first positive year-over-year price reading is likely by Q4 2026 under the base case.
Supply is the binding constraint. Active listings fell 13.5% year-over-year in June — the largest such decline of 2026 so far. New listings are down 12.9% year-over-year. Sellers remain reluctant to list in a market where prices are still below peak, but that reluctance will ease as prices stabilise and public confidence in the market's direction improves. When it does, new supply will increase. The timing of that reversal — and its pace — will determine whether the H2 2026 recovery is orderly or sharper than the base case.
The condo segment remains the most complex calculus. The apartment benchmark is down 9.5% year-over-year — the widest gap of any major segment. Months of inventory in the condo market remain elevated relative to freehold, SP/LP ratios are below parity in several downtown sub-markets, and investor-held resale inventory continues to add to supply at a price point where first-time buyer demand is constrained by qualifying benchmarks. However, with the City of Toronto's composite benchmark now positive year-over-year and the detached segment correction narrowing to -2.0%, the repricing in condos may be approaching a floor — particularly in well-located, professionally managed buildings where underlying rental demand remains robust.
Geopolitical and trade risk remains a variable. TRREB President Steinfeld's forecast of accelerating transactions and renewed price growth is predicated on market conditions continuing to tighten. An escalation of trade uncertainty or geopolitical stress — particularly anything that damages Canadian GDP or employment materially — could delay the second-half recovery. The base case assumes gradual normalisation on both fronts. Markets rarely move in straight lines; the H2 2026 outlook is constructive but not unconditional.
Closing Assessment
June 2026 closed the GTA's strongest quarter in two years. Sales up 9.4%. Listings down. Inventory contracting. Prices declining more slowly by the month, and rising month-over-month for the second consecutive reading. The second half of the year has begun — and it looks the way TRREB said it would.
For buyers, the calculus is sharpening. The negotiating advantage that characterised the market through 2024 and into early 2026 has not disappeared, but it is narrowing in every meaningful metric: months of inventory, SNLR trend, SP/LP ratios, and new listing volume. In the established freehold markets of Halton and Durham, balanced conditions have already arrived. In the City of Toronto and York Region, the direction of travel is unmistakeable. The buyers who act while inventory is still contracting will not be buying into a recovery — they will be buying ahead of it.
For sellers, June's data is an invitation to re-evaluate the decision to wait. A 9.4% year-over-year sales increase means more buyers. Fewer new listings means less competition. SP/LP ratios in core city neighbourhoods are at or above 100%. The conditions that support a well-priced, well-presented listing are improving. The sellers who waited through 2025 have not missed the window — but the window is beginning to open, and it will not stay open indefinitely.
For investors, the condo segment still demands patience. The year-over-year apartment benchmark at -8.2% and elevated months of inventory mean near-term pricing pressure is real. But the medium-term case — a recovering demand base, a structurally undersupplied city, and benchmark prices that are meaningfully below peak on a fixed-rate mortgage that may look expensive relative to 2027–2028 rates — remains intact for those with the time horizon to hold through the noise.
The GTA housing market in June 2026 was not recovering. But it was unmistakably building toward one.
Data sourced from the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) MLS® Market Watch, June 2026. All statistics are based on firm transactions entered into the TRREB MLS® System. Average prices are intended for trend analysis only and do not reflect the value of any specific property. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
The Residences Group at Sotheby's International Realty Canada | residencestoronto.com
