March 2026 Toronto Real Estate Market Report
March 2026 Toronto Market Report
Fewer listings. More buyers. The spring market is shifting — and the window is narrowing.
March 2026 | Market Report
Explore the March 2026 GTA real estate market update with insights on tightening conditions, rising sales, declining new listings, and persistent price adjustment. This report examines how improving affordability and constrained supply are positioning Toronto's housing market for a potential inflection point.
The Greater Toronto Area Real Estate Market Report: March 2026
March 2026 delivered the clearest evidence yet that the Greater Toronto Area housing market is moving through a meaningful transition. Sales climbed year-over-year for the first time in recent months, new listings fell sharply, and while prices continued to correct, the pace of that correction showed early signs of plateauing. The interplay of improving affordability, constrained supply, and still-cautious buyer sentiment is defining this spring market — and shaping what lies ahead.
Drawing on the latest TRREB Market Watch report, this analysis examines March's performance in detail, interprets the signals beneath the headline figures, and outlines what they may mean for buyers, sellers, and investors navigating the remainder of 2026.
At a Glance — March 2026
Sales: 5,039 homes sold across the Greater Toronto Area, up 1.7% year-over-year
New Listings: 14,442 — down 16.7% year-over-year
Active Listings: 21,596 — down 8.0% year-over-year
Average Selling Price: $1,017,796 — down 6.7% year-over-year
MLS® HPI Composite Benchmark: Down 7.4% year-over-year
Average Days on Market (LDOM): 31 days (vs. 24 in March 2025)
Toronto Real Estate Market — Sales Activity
Monthly MLS residential transactions · January 2022 – March 2026
Greater Toronto Area
All TRREB regions combined
City of Toronto
416 area · City of Toronto only
Market Conditions: Tightening Where It Matters
Sales and Listings: The Supply Withdrawal Deepens
The most consequential dynamic in March was not the modest uptick in sales — it was the accelerating withdrawal of new supply. GTA Realtors reported 5,039 transactions through TRREB's MLS® System in March 2026, a 1.7% year-over-year increase that marked the first positive sales comparison in several reporting periods. Against this, new listings totalled just 14,442 — a substantial 16.7% annual decline — while active listings across the GTA contracted 8.0% to 21,596.
On a seasonally adjusted basis, March sales rose at a slightly faster rate than new listings month-over-month compared to February 2026. The cumulative effect is a market where supply discipline is quietly restoring balance. When inventory contracts faster than demand, the conditions for price stabilisation — and eventually recovery — begin to materialise even before sentiment fully turns.
The Sales-to-New-Listings Ratio (SNLR) Trend
The SNLR trend across the GTA stood at 34.1% in March, with notable variation by geography. Halton Region (36.4%), Toronto East (39.3%), and select Durham communities registered above-average ratios, signalling relative tightening in those sub-markets. Conversely, Caledon (20.4%) and certain outer-ring communities remained in more deeply balanced or buyers' market territory, reflecting the bifurcation that continues to characterise the broader region.
Pricing Trends: Adjustment Continues, Momentum Fades
Price measures continued to reflect the correction cycle that has defined the GTA market since mid-2022, though the trajectory is evolving:
The average selling price of $1,017,796 was 6.7% below March 2025
The MLS® HPI Composite benchmark declined 7.4% year-over-year to $941,800
On a seasonally adjusted month-over-month basis, the HPI edged marginally lower while the average selling price edged modestly higher — an early indication of stabilisation
Segment-Level Pricing — March 2026
Home Type Average Price YoY Change Detached $1,342,375 -6.4% Semi-Detached $1,008,246 -6.4% Townhouse (Att./Row) $850,266 -6.4% Condo Apartment $620,479 -9.1%
The condominium apartment segment continues to face the sharpest price pressure, reflecting elevated inventory relative to demand and the ongoing recalibration of investor expectations. Detached and semi-detached properties demonstrated relative resilience, particularly in the 905-area communities where family-oriented demand has remained more consistent.
MLS® HPI Benchmark Highlights by Geography
The price index tells a more granular story. Within the City of Toronto, composite benchmarks ranged from $734,100 in Toronto W05 to $1,968,600 in Toronto C04 — underscoring that "the Toronto market" encompasses meaningfully different dynamics by neighbourhood. Year-over-year benchmark declines were most pronounced in Caledon (-12.80% composite), East Gwillimbury (-13.58%), and King (-9.46%), while select central Toronto nodes showed relative resilience.
Buyer Sentiment: Opportunity Becoming Visible
The narrative of buyers on the sidelines continues to define this market moment. TRREB President Daniel Steinfeld noted that the March uptick in sales suggests an increasing number of GTA households are beginning to act on improved affordability as the spring market opens. Positive developments on the trade and geopolitical front, he noted, would accelerate this trend.
TRREB Chief Information Officer Jason Mercer offered the clearest articulation of the pricing dynamic currently at work: buyers have retained substantial negotiating power across major segments — which explains the continued year-over-year price decline — but if market conditions continue to tighten as they did in March, that power is likely to diminish as the year progresses.
The implication for well-capitalised buyers is significant. The window during which price concessions are available and competition remains limited is a finite one.
Regional Performance: March 2026 Sales by Area
City of Toronto
Toronto's 1,913 transactions in March were anchored by the condo apartment segment (951 units), which remains the most active by volume despite continued price softening. Detached activity (574 units across the 416) held relatively firm, with average prices in that category reaching $1,613,066 — still commanding a meaningful premium over 905-area equivalents.
York Region
York Region recorded 461 sales at an average price of $1,164,324, led by Richmond Hill and Vaughan. The region's months of inventory trend (3.7) was among the tighter readings across the GTA, consistent with the sustained demand that has characterised its family-oriented communities.
York Region Real Estate Market
Monthly active listings & MLS sales transactions · 2021–2026
York Region — Active Listings
Monthly active listings by year
York Region — Monthly Sales
Monthly MLS residential transactions by year
Durham Region
Durham registered 640 transactions at an average price of $857,526 — among the more accessible entry points in the broader GTA. Ajax (93 sales, average $857,526) and Whitby (159 sales, average $931,827) continued to attract price-sensitive buyers migrating east.
Halton Region
Halton's 556 transactions averaged $1,137,426, with Oakville (191 sales, average $1,360,873) and Burlington (207 sales, average $1,098,789) anchoring the region. Halton's SNLR trend of 36.4% and months of inventory of 4.6 suggest a market that is tighter than the GTA average.
Peel Region
Peel recorded 876 sales at an average of $956,714, with Brampton (375 sales) and Mississauga (452 sales, average $966,615) accounting for the bulk of activity. The Peel market continues to serve as a critical affordability bridge between core Toronto and the outer 905 communities.
March 2026 Home Sales by Region
Greater Toronto Area · MLS residential transactions
| Region ↕ | Sales volume ↕ | Units ↓ |
|---|---|---|
| GTA Total |
Macroeconomic Context: Rates, Inflation, and Employment
The broader economic backdrop remained broadly supportive in March, with key indicators as follows:
Bank of Canada Overnight Rate: 2.75% (unchanged from most recent announcement)
Prime Rate: 4.95%
Toronto Unemployment Rate: 8.1% (February 2026, elevated but stable)
Toronto Employment Growth: 0.1% year-over-year (February 2026)
Inflation (CPI, Yr./Yr.): 1.8% (February 2026, declining)
Real GDP Growth: -0.6% (Q4 2025, annualized — a headwind worth monitoring)
1-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate: 5.49% | 3-Year: 6.05% | 5-Year: 6.09%
The contraction in Q4 2025 GDP and the elevated unemployment rate in Toronto are meaningful context. They explain, in part, why consumer confidence has remained restrained and why the recovery in sales has been measured rather than emphatic. The more constructive read is that inflation has returned to near-target levels, the Bank of Canada has stabilised its policy rate, and real wages are recovering ground — all of which underpin household balance sheets and, over time, housing demand.
Supply Pipeline: A Structural Concern on the Horizon
TRREB CEO John DiMichele's commentary in the March release was pointed and worth examining closely. The GTA housing supply pipeline, he noted, is in danger of running dry over the medium-to-long term. While federal and provincial announcements on HST relief and development charge reductions represent important steps in stimulating new home construction, the critical challenge lies in ensuring the right types of homes are built.
The "missing middle" — townhouses, stacked towns, and mid-rise products that bridge the gap between condominium apartments and traditional single-family homes — remains severely underrepresented in the GTA's development pipeline. The recently enacted Ontario Building Homes and Improving Transportation Infrastructure Act contemplates this gap, but policy intent and construction reality are separated by years of entitlement, financing, and execution risk.
For the medium-term market, the implication is clear: supply constraints are not a cyclical phenomenon — they are a structural one. That reality will, in time, reassert upward pressure on prices even as the current correction cycle works itself through.
Year-to-Date 2026: Context for the Quarter
Through the first three months of 2026, 11,954 homes have transacted across the GTA at an average price of $1,002,718 — tracking below the same period in 2025 on both a volume (-3.5% vs. the corresponding quarter of the prior year) and price basis. The trajectory, however, is improving month-over-month: January's $970,719 average gave way to February's $1,008,409, and March's $1,017,796 extended that sequential recovery.
New listings through the year-to-date period totalled 35,954, down meaningfully versus the same period of the prior year, with active listings at 21,596 at March month-end.
Outlook: A Market at an Inflection
March 2026's data, taken in aggregate, supports a constructive but measured outlook:
Supply dynamics favour sellers over the next several months. With new listing activity declining sharply and active inventory contracting, the balance of power in most segments is gradually shifting. If listing volumes remain subdued through April and May — as current seller-intent surveys suggest — competition among buyers will intensify, providing a floor under prices.
Price stabilization is the most probable near-term outcome. The month-over-month data already shows the HPI and average price essentially flat on a seasonally adjusted basis. The year-over-year comparisons will become easier as the year progresses, given the price softness recorded in H2 2025.
Pent-up demand remains the market's most significant latent variable. Tens of thousands of qualified buyers who deferred purchase decisions through 2024 and 2025 are still present. Their re-entry will be catalysed by a combination of price stability, improved interest rate clarity, and broader economic confidence. The timing of that catalyst remains the key uncertainty.
The condo apartment segment requires particular patience. With benchmark prices down 9.6% year-over-year across the GTA and inventory elevated, the condominium market is likely to be the last segment to recover. Investors with longer time horizons and strong balance sheets are well-positioned; those relying on near-term appreciation or carrying high leverage face continued headwinds.
Macro uncertainty is not to be dismissed. The GDP contraction in Q4 2025, ongoing geopolitical trade tensions, and elevated unemployment in certain sectors represent genuine risks to the recovery thesis. A further deterioration in economic conditions or a reversal in the Bank of Canada's rate posture would materially alter this outlook.
Overall Assessment
March 2026 did not signal a return to the exuberance of prior cycles. What it did signal — clearly, in the data — is that the GTA housing market is stabilising, and that the forces required for a recovery are beginning to align.
Sales rose. Supply fell. Month-over-month prices held. These are not the characteristics of a market in continued freefall; they are the characteristics of a market finding its footing.
For buyers, the window of meaningful negotiating power may be shorter than it appears. For sellers, patience and pricing discipline remain essential. For investors, the structural scarcity of well-located, appropriately sized housing in one of North America's most dynamic metropolitan regions continues to underpin the long-term thesis.
The spring market is underway. The evidence suggests it will be more constructive than the one that preceded it.
Data sourced from the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) MLS® Market Watch, March 2026. All statistics are based on firm transactions entered into the TRREB MLS® System. Average prices are intended for trend analysis only and do not reflect the value of any specific property. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
The Residences Group at Sotheby's International Realty Canada | residencestoronto.com
