May 2026 | Market Report
May 2026 | Market Report
Spring sales strengthened year-over-year, new listings contracted sharply, and the GTA market continued to tighten, quietly, but with increasing conviction.
The Greater Toronto Area Real Estate Market Report: May 2026
The GTA resale housing market delivered a meaningful inflection point in May 2026. Sales climbed 6.3% year-over-year to 6,583 transactions — the strongest showing of the spring cycle relative to the same period last year — while new listings fell 18.9% to 17,698, a decline that meaningfully tightened the supply-demand balance across all major sub-markets. On a seasonally adjusted basis, sales were up 10% month-over-month versus April, signalling that the spring momentum is not merely a year-over-year base effect but a genuine acceleration in buyer activity. Against this backdrop, the average selling price settled at $1,069,700, down 4.6% year-over-year but edging slightly higher month-over-month on a seasonally adjusted basis — the first tentative sign that price declines may be approaching their floor.
Drawing on May 2026 TRREB MLS® Market Watch data, this report examines sales trends, regional performance, segment-level pricing, macroeconomic context, and what May's data implies for the second half of 2026.
At a Glance — May 2026
Sales: 6,583; +6.3% YoY
New Listings: 17,698; -18.9% YoY
Active Listings: 26,927; -13.3% YoY
Average Selling Price: $1,069,700; -4.6% YoY
MLS® HPI Composite Benchmark: $946,500; -6.7% YoY
Average Days on Market (LDOM): 27 days
TRREB MLS® System
City of Toronto — Monthly Home Sales
Year-over-year comparison, January through May 2026
Market Conditions: A Tightening That Can No Longer Be Ignored
The defining feature of May 2026 was not the sales gain — meaningful as 6.3% year-over-year is — but the collapse in new supply. Sellers listed 17,698 properties in May, versus 21,830 in May 2025, a reduction of more than 4,100 homes entering the market in a single month. With buyers simultaneously more active and sellers pulling back, the supply-demand balance shifted materially in favour of the former. Active listings across all TRREB member areas fell to 26,927, down 13.3% from May 2025's 31,047 — a contraction that has been building steadily through the first five months of the year.
The Sales-to-New-Listings Ratio (SNLR) trend sat at 35.7% across all TRREB areas in May, a figure that still technically favours buyers in aggregate, but one that masks a materially different picture at the sub-market level. The City of Toronto, at a 36.6% SNLR trend, is approaching the lower boundary of balanced market conditions, while select York Region and Halton sub-markets are already inside balanced territory. With months of inventory trending at 4.8 across all TRREB areas — and as low as 2.9 in Burlington — pockets of the market are no longer offering the negotiating latitude that buyers have enjoyed through 2024 and early 2025. The sequential tightening is real, and accelerating.
On a month-over-month seasonally adjusted basis, new listings declined a further 2.1% from April — the second consecutive monthly drop in supply — while sales rose 10%. The data points in one direction.
Pricing Trends: Year-Over-Year Declines Persist, but the Monthly Signal Has Changed
The average selling price of $1,069,700 in May 2026 represents a 4.6% decline from May 2025's $1,120,716 — a gap that continues to compress relative to the deeper corrections seen in late 2024 and early 2025. More instructive for forward-looking buyers and sellers: on a seasonally adjusted month-over-month basis, the average selling price edged higher versus April. The MLS® HPI Composite moved slightly lower month-over-month on the same basis — the two measures do not always move in unison — but the directional shift in the average is consistent with a market approaching price stability.
At the segment level, the detached category continues to demonstrate the most resilience, particularly in the 905 regions. Semi-detached properties in the City of Toronto — a perennially undersupplied format — also held firm relative to other segments. The condo apartment market, with its comparatively elevated months of inventory and softer SNLR, remains the segment facing the most sustained pricing pressure.
Segment-Level Pricing — May 2026
TRREB MLS® System
Segment-Level Pricing — May 2026
GTA average selling price and year-over-year change by home type
| Home Type | Average Price | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|
| Detached | $1,358,131 | -4.7% |
| Semi-Detached | $1,067,672 | -2.9% |
| Townhouse (Att./Row) | $840,608 | -7.1% |
| Condo Apartment | $639,468 | -6.4% |
Total GTA averages across 416 and 905 combined. Source: TRREB MLS® Market Watch, May 2026.
The MLS® HPI Composite benchmark of $946,500 reflects a 6.7% year-over-year decline across all TRREB areas. Single-family detached benchmarks held closer to the -6.6% range, while the apartment benchmark registered the sharpest decline at -9.1%, confirming that the softness in the condo segment is structural rather than seasonal.
Buyer Sentiment: Affordability Is Working. But the Window Is Narrowing.
TRREB President Daniel Steinfeld noted that spring sales have been stronger than last year, with improved affordability — a function of both lower selling prices and reduced borrowing costs — drawing buyers back into the market. His observation that sales are expected to strengthen further into the second half of 2026, and that any resolution on trade uncertainty or geopolitical tensions would provide additional lift, reflects a base case that is incrementally more constructive than the cautious tone that characterised TRREB commentary through 2025.
TRREB Chief Information Officer Jason Mercer offered the more critical insight for buyers currently in the market: inventory trended lower over the past year, and while buyers retained substantial negotiating power through the spring, the forward-looking dynamic is shifting. If sales strengthen further relative to listings — which May’s sequential data suggests is already underway — selling prices will level off and begin to grow into 2027. For buyers who have been disciplined through the correction, May 2026 may represent one of the final months in which meaningful negotiating leverage is broadly available.
Regional Performance: May 2026 Sales by Area
City of Toronto reported 2,377 sales in May at an average price of $1,108,292 — with the SNLR trend at 36.6% and months of inventory at 4.4. Toronto Central dominated volume with 1,184 sales at an average of $1,151,366. Toronto East delivered 570 sales at $1,036,075, while Toronto West recorded 623 sales at $1,092,503. The SP/LP ratio for the city hit 100% — properties in the City of Toronto are, on average, selling at list price, a marker that negotiating dynamics in established neighbourhoods have materially changed.
York Region recorded 664 sales at an average price of $1,181,220. Richmond Hill (154 sales, $1,577,170 average) and Markham (303 sales, $1,199,667 average) continue to draw significant demand from move-up buyers and families. Vaughan posted 313 sales at $1,179,718. Active listings in York Region declined to 5,252 from much higher levels seen in late 2025.
TRREB MLS® System
York Region — Monthly Home Sales
Year-over-year comparison, January through May 2026
Peel Region saw 1,106 sales at an average price of $956,019. Mississauga reported 568 sales at $971,047, while Brampton generated 456 sales at $889,407. Caledon, with just 82 sales at $1,222,347, reflects the continued appeal of estate and premium detached product in the western 905 corridor.
Halton Region delivered 816 sales at an average price of $1,248,277. Oakville led the region with 304 sales at $1,559,052 — consistent with its position as one of the GTA’s most sought-after luxury sub-markets. Burlington (278 sales, $1,126,148 average) and Milton (165 sales, $977,732 average) contributed meaningful volume.
Durham Region posted 804 sales at an average price of $851,065. Durham’s SNLR trend of 40.4% and months of inventory of 3.5 make it the tightest region in the GTA by these measures — a reflection of its relative affordability and continued demand from buyers seeking freehold product under $1 million.
TRREB MLS® System
City of Toronto — Monthly Home Sales
Year-over-year comparison, January through May 2026
Macroeconomic Context: Conditions are Aligned for a Second-Half Recovery
The macroeconomic backdrop in May 2026 presents a more supportive housing environment than at any point since the rate cycle began in 2022:
Bank of Canada Overnight Rate: 2.3% (April 2026)
Prime Rate: 4.5% (April 2026)
Mortgage Rates (Fixed, April 2026): 1-year 5.49% · 3-year 6.05% · 5-year 6.09%
Toronto Unemployment Rate (SA): 8.1% (March 2026)
Toronto Employment Growth: -0.3% YoY (March 2026)
Inflation (CPI Yr./Yr.): 2.4% (March 2026)
Real GDP Growth: -0.6% (Q4 2025, annualized)
The combination of an overnight rate at 2.3%, inflation settling near the Bank of Canada’s target range, and a mortgage rate environment that has materially improved from 2023–2024 peaks creates the affordability conditions TRREB has consistently cited as prerequisites for a market recovery. Toronto’s unemployment rate at 8.1% and slightly negative employment growth year-over-year introduce a degree of caution, but a return to positive GDP growth would further de-risk the forward outlook.
Supply Pipeline & Policy Landscape
TRREB CEO John DiMichele used the May release to reiterate TRREB’s support for Bill 98, the Building Homes and Improving Transportation Infrastructure Act of 2026. The legislation targets the structural constraints — development approvals timelines, municipal levies, zoning barriers — that have suppressed the housing supply pipeline relative to demand for an extended period.
The relevance for the 2026 market is direct: while near-term inventory is declining — contributing to the tightening conditions described in this report — the medium-term supply response will be shaped by whether Bill 98 and related provincial measures succeed in accelerating approvals and reducing construction costs. In the absence of that supply response, a sharper price recovery than the base case anticipates is probable.
Year-to-Date 2026: Sequential Momentum Building
TRREB MLS® System
Year-to-Date 2026: Sequential Momentum Building
Monthly GTA home sales and average selling price, January–May 2026
| Month | Sales | Average Price |
|---|---|---|
| January 2026 | 3,049 | $968,562 |
| February 2026 | 3,839 | $1,007,619 |
| March 2026 | 5,004 | $1,016,789 |
| April 2026 | 5,930 | $1,052,363 |
| May 2026 | 6,583 | $1,069,700 |
| YTD Total | 24,405 | $1,032,238 |
Source: TRREB MLS® Market Watch, May 2026. YTD average price is the overall average across all transactions January–May 2026.
The sequential price recovery from January’s $968,562 through May’s $1,069,700 — a gain of approximately $101,000 over five months — is not a statistical artifact of seasonal demand patterns alone. The underlying volume trend confirms genuine buyer re-engagement: from 3,049 sales in January to 6,583 in May, the market has roughly doubled its monthly transaction velocity.
Outlook: What the Second Half of 2026 Holds
Demand momentum is real and will likely intensify. The combination of a 10% month-over-month sales increase on a seasonally adjusted basis in May, improved affordability metrics, and TRREB’s forecast of continued sales growth into H2 2026 points toward a market that is in the early stages of recovery. If the Bank of Canada holds or reduces the overnight rate further, the affordability equation improves further.
Prices are approaching an inflection. The month-over-month seasonally adjusted price increase in May is a leading indicator. Year-over-year prices are still negative — and will likely remain so through Q3 2026 — but the rate of decline is compressing. By Q4 2026, year-over-year comparisons will be measured against the weak pricing environment of late 2025, making positive readings increasingly probable.
Supply contraction is the market’s defining variable. The 18.9% year-over-year decline in new listings is not a minor data fluctuation — it is a structural shift in seller behaviour. The pace of listings recovery will determine whether the second-half recovery is orderly or sharp.
The condo segment warrants continued attention. Apartment benchmark prices are down 9.1% year-over-year — the most significant correction of any major segment. Buyers with a 24–36 month time horizon will likely find the best value-per-square-foot opportunities in this segment today.
Trade and geopolitical risk remains a key watch variable. TRREB President Steinfeld explicitly cited positive news on the trade front and an easing of geopolitical tensions as catalysts that would bolster the housing recovery. The base case assumes gradual normalization.
Overall Assessment
May 2026 was, in the careful language of market analysis, a clarifying month. Not a recovery, not yet, but the clearest confirmation to date that the structural conditions for one are assembling: demand growing, supply shrinking, prices stabilizing month-over-month, and the macroeconomic backdrop aligned rather than working against the market.
For buyers, the data delivers a message that warrants attention. The negotiating leverage that characterized the past eighteen months has not disappeared, but it is narrowing — measurably, sequentially, in every data point that tracks the relationship between supply and demand. The window of broadly available buyer power is not indefinitely open.
For sellers, May reinforces that the cycle has turned. Properties in the City of Toronto are selling at 100% of list price on average. Accurate pricing, professional presentation, and strategic timing matter more as the market tightens.
For investors and portfolio holders, the condo segment continues to offer the most complex calculus. Near-term pricing pressure is real. But for those with the balance sheet and time horizon to absorb it, today’s benchmark prices may represent the entry point that is most visible only in retrospect.
The GTA housing market in May 2026 was not exuberant. It was something more durable: directional.
Data sourced from the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) MLS® Market Watch, May 2026. All statistics are based on firm transactions entered into the TRREB MLS® System. Average prices are intended for trend analysis only and do not reflect the value of any specific property. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
The Residences Group at Sotheby’s International Realty Canada | residencestoronto.com
